King's Cup: Can holders Al Ittihad ignite season at soaring Al Nassr?

It’s only October, but already Tuesday night’s King’s Cup Round of 16 clash between Al Nassr and Al Ittihad feels season-shaping.

That applies for both clubs, but particularly for the defending champions - of both the Roshn Saudi League and King’s Cup - Al Ittihad.

After a bright start to the 2025-26 campaign for the Jeddah giants, the past few weeks have been ones to forget. Having now gone winless in their past three RSL games, Al Ittihad have dropped to seventh and are already eight points off league leaders, Al Nassr.

In fact, it was Jorge Jesus’ side that ignited the rot with a 2-0 victory at Al Ittihad at the end of September in Jeddah - a loss that saw Laurent Blanc removed from his position. The title-winning Frenchman was soon replaced by former FC Porto and AC Milan manager, Sergio Conceicao.

It’s a narrative arc that bears uncanny similarities to the 2023-24 season, in which Al Ittihad were also defending champions, and started brightly before falling quickly, removing Nuno Espirito Santo and appointing Marcelo Gallardo.

That time, the champions concluded the season in fifth, a whopping 42 points off top spot.

Al Ittihad will be desperately hoping this isn’t a case of history repeating, although the encounter with Al Nassr in Riyadh offers the King's Cup holders a glorious opportunity to flip their fortunes. And, at the same time, inflict Al Nassr’s first defeat of the season in either the league, cup or continental competition.

Stopping this version of Al Nassr is easier said than done, however. As Al Ittihad have already experienced.

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Riyadh club defeat RSL champions Al Ittihad 2-0 in Jeddah

First, let’s just look at the raw numbers before digging down into the detail of the data. Across all competitions, Al Nassr have played 10, won 10, scored 34 goals and conceded only three. To this point, they have been a machine.

Delve a little deeper and we can see how difficult it will be for Al Ittihad to not only break down Jorge Jesus’ firing side, but also keep them from scoring at the other end.

Take shots, for example, both taken at goal, but also conceded at the other end. Al Nassr lead the RSL in the former, with 103 shots on goal - close to double what Al Ittihad have been able to create, with 55, which ranks eighth in the division.

At the other end, Al Nassr have faced the fewest shots in the entire league, with only 34 attempts being made on their goal. Al Ittihad, meanwhile, have had more than twice that amount, with 75.

As the stats bear out, Al Nassr are far more fluid offensively than their Jeddah counterparts. While it is interesting that Al Ittihad have completed significantly more passes in the opposition half (1825 to 1368), around only half of those have been in the final third, compared to Al Nassr’s 75-plus percent.

That consistently places Cristiano Ronaldo and Co in more dangerous positions and allows them to create more chances. And, of course, the more you create, the more you score.

It also speaks to the pressing of Jesus’ side and where they can win back the ball; they suffocate their opposition, thus denying them any opportunities on the counter.

That was partly the story of their first meeting of the season last month, when Al Nassr came away from Jeddah with a notable win. On that occasion, the visitors at Alinma Stadium registered 21 shots to eight, dominating the territorial advantage 61% to 39% despite Al Ittihad making more passes on the night.

None of this will be lost on Conceicao, who will be studiously examining how to break down a defence that has, so far this season, been almost completely impregnable.

The return to fitness of Karim Benzema certainly helps in that regard, although the absence of winger Steven Bergwijn and goalkeeper Predrag Rajkovic, both so impressive in Al Ittihad’s twin trophy charge last term, will hurt.

Last Friday, in the 2-0 Saudi Clasico defeat at home to Al Hilal, there were still positive signs despite the scoreline. Especially in the first half, where Al Ittihad created more than enough chances to take something from the game, only to come unstuck to an own goal and a goalkeeping error.

Against the side setting the pace this season, though, they cannot afford any similar slip-ups. At the other end of the pitch, Al Ittihad need to be absolutely clinical, too.

If they can get that right, they give themselves a chance of a potentially form-reversing victory. Just what a win, and a place in the King’s Cup quarter-finals, would do to turbo-charge Al Ittihad’s season. It could come, also, with the double satisfaction of checking the momentum of their red-hot RSL rivals.